/townhall/ - Townhall

>>12997
The reason is: Base rates, combined with lack of any evidence that she knows anything about crypto.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate

Suppose 0.8% of women who get mammograms have breast cancer. In 90% of women with breast cancer, the mammogram will correctly detect it. However, among women without breast cancer, 7% will get a false positive reading on the mammogram. If you randomly pick a woman who gets a mammogram, and she gets a positive mammogram result, what is the probability that she has breast cancer?

>>12998
>it is my assumption that someone who understood it wouldn't want to restrict it in the same way as other traditional forms of finance
But why? What if experts agree?
I'm not anywhere near knowledgable about it either, but why trust the blockchain association over her?

>>12999
Okay, then you probably know just as little about crypto as she does. Probabilistically speaking.

>>13000
I'm a software engineer, not a politician.  Very different base rates.

>>12980
The problem is that I didn't know the right keywords to Google.  ChatGPT is a lot more forgiving in that aspect.  If there is concern about the accuracy of the LLM's output, then it would be relatively easy to Google it for more information to confirm or refute it.

>>12982
This is honestly the most damning thing I've ever read about AI.

>>12985
Doushite?

It was fair, it was indiscriminate.
Now describe one way in which it helped...?

>>12821
Thing is, deer don't have FTL, and also their populations aren't fixed job done by one single action besides.

>>12983
I think that was supposed to be facetious.

https://people.com/kim-kardashian-goes-back-to-platinum-blonde-8599675

I don't understand why human beings consider vehicles such as (particularly the the one in the OP) these to be emotionally attractive such that owning one makes people more likely to date you and have sex with you, but this appears to be the case.

{This is probably related to me being on the autism spectrum and simply not understanding how most people emotionally feel desire in a lot of ways, if I'm really honest.}

>>12969

I think it first has to do with the vehicle being aesthetically-pleasing, which is a natural human attraction. In our culture, lower and even moderately-priced items won't be particularly aesthetically-pleasing, with quality and functionality being the most important. As you go up in price, aesthetics gradually become more important, while quality and functionality become less so. There is a medium to medium-high price-point where something is both good quality with good aesthetics. But even then, aesthetic choice is limited due to the market not particularly valuing aesthetics to begin with. Only at the highest price points can the aesthetic of something be truly customized for a person. If you own an object such as this, you implicitly have a lot of money. Many people think money gives status. The emotional component comes in, due to people's greed, anger, and delusion, thinking that money and status are important and need to be attained. Sexual appeal intermingles with this, as a means to strengthen and promote the illusion.

[See: MLP razzle dazzle glitz and glam episode]

(In addition, the rust aspect is funny because it reveals the superficiality of it all, as a lack of regard for quality (and possibly functionality) is apparent almost directly within the aesthetic (just give it a few days) (i.e.: rust ruins quality, functionality (over time - most believe rust leads to holes), and aesthetic all at once.)

I'm already bitter enough about effectively having no choice but own a car in an un-walkable city, why would I waste money on an industry that has a long history of suppressing public transportation and which has led America into this ponzi scheme where we pay for the upkeep of older suburban housing developments with new suburban housing development revenues while increasing future cost of upkeeping an increasingly inefficient infrastructure?

Obviously cars and trucks and such are very useful for people in certain areas (like rural communities) but not necessary everywhere (like a city), yet are still effectively forced on everyone by the very design of the infrastructure.

I don't watch the news anymore or heard of this guy, but based on the situation as described, I would apply the following rules:

1. Killing is wrong.
2. Killing may be justified (as in, mostly (at least), I think - one may choose to justify it) but it is still wrong.
3. Justification is the worldly method of attempted atonement for wrong. Instead of seeking forgiveness (as in Western traditions) or Wisdom/Understanding (Eastern), justification is given in order to maintain one's position.
4. Justification may be given to either oneself or to others.
5. Justification does not make a wrong a right.

>>12950
I don't imagine the average European will defend this.
Granted, aside from a group of pro Russian folks.

Now US Republicans, they probably think it was Russia's perogative to do.
Or I hear there's a call to not let Asange be the next Navalny for Americans.
Or Trump tweeting he's just like Navalny and the government is trying to murder him for speaking the truth.

>>12956
>>12958
These are solid points.

Yeah, I'd say that the average European wouldn't defend this assassination. It's more that it feels shocking that any European would. Let alone some small yet incredibly public faction of activists.

It seems almost like people marching in support of the seasonal flu or in support of car accidents plus bad breath in terms of "bad things are bad" as a clear moral rule being ignored.

If we're willing to believe a government organization is lying, which I think is neither farfetched nor particularly conspiratorial, then I don't think it's too crazy to say that they were lying about the flight being cancelled due to weather conditions.

Does intelligent life exist on other Milky Way planets? This appears to be the case, logically, given the nature of evolution and the extremely large number of locations that scientifically support life extremely well.

Have they visited Earth before? This is far more tricky given that, yes, on the one hand a large number of credible witnesses from American commercial pilots to Navy personnel in the U.S. have not just seen strange craft but engaged with them (such as have had unusual objects jam our radar systems). I'm inclined to see this as credible evidence although so much more research is needed.

Did this one really specific incident in Roswell involve aliens? That's a far more spurious claim. The lack of eyewitness evidence either way makes me think both that the U.S. government is lying and also that extraterrestrial escapes cannot be at all proven.

This interview is neat in that, while, yes, Rogan is always a goofball as a literal stand-up comedian, his guest is extremely credible to me:

>

>>12951

I think that if extraterrestrials wanted to visit an uncivilized and technologically-primitive planet like Earth for whatever reason, they could do so easily without us knowing, and UFO conspiracy theories are more a product of our species, rather than reality. Furthermore, if extraterrestrials could visit Earth without anyone knowing, it must follow that they are good because for technology to advance that far in a society would require the perfection of compassion.

...and if extraterrestrials were present, then the proof would be indisputable by now, given nearly everyone on Earth has a cellphone with a high-quality camera now, yet no troves of pictures are coming in. Lastly, the military can't keep secrets, either. So, in conclusion, there are either no aliens visiting Earth, or there are and we don't need to concern ourselves with it.

>>12947
"If even then you remain hostile toward me and refuse to obey, I will inflict you with seven more disasters for your sins. I will release wild animals that will kill your children and destroy your cattle, so your numbers will dwindle and your roads will be deserted." (Leviticus 26:21-22)

"Cursed be he who does the Lord's work remissly, cursed he who holds back his sword from blood." (Jeremiah 48:10)

How many statements from the Lord, from Jesus Christ, would you like me to quote to you?

I'd like to point out that you and I are mere creatures of flesh and blood, not that different from ants and such, while these are holy proclamations from the God who created the Universe and such that cannot be revised, opposed, or interpreted away: not a single comma or such of this holy writing can be ignored. Granted, I'm personally not a Christian and thus these words have no individual power over me. Yet if I was, then, well, obviously they would.

>>12948
No amount of irrelevant cherrypicked quotes would sway me into believing your claims of "large amounts" of "deranged religious fanatics who enjoy lying cheating and stealing".
So, zero, really.
I'd much prefer you stay on task.

>>12948
Most of the religious people I know don't read the bible that much. Do you have any actual statistics?

>>12875
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/15/biden-extremist-jewish-settlers-travel-ban-loophole

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=7V-zSC-fHBY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNqozQ8uaV8


Americans have and already occupy that land

>>12937
I'm seeing three news stories about militant subgroups of right-wing conservative Americans going into Palestine to commit acts of violence against innocents of various races, religions, nationalities, and so on due to their reactionary political beliefs.

Which is horrible, of course, but you're making an incredible buttload of assumptions in order to move this from:
A)Certain factions of far-right extremist American political activists want to commit violence in a foreign nation (against a large variety of victims).
To:
B)All far-right extremist Americans are trying to colonize Palestine, specifically.
And then:
C)All Americans who're of the right-leaning side of the political spectrum are just inherently terrible people who want to do evil acts, including colonizing Palestine on behalf of America.
Before going to:
D)Even the majority of Americans who're apolitical (or who have some interest in politics that's either centrist, libertarian, socialistic, communistic, or anything else that's not right-wing conservative) are at moral fault for what the minority does.
And finally ending up with:
E)Americans are an evil group of monsters who want to take over Palestine.

To be blunt, you're almost exactly the same as somebody who sees a rapist criminal who happens to have dark skin attacking a random woman and then claims that this proves "all black people have crime in their DNA".
Post too long. Click here to view the full text.

>>12937
>>12938
I'd also like to point out the fact that geographic and political community known as "Palestine" that has been named as such going back hundreds upon hundreds of years to areas controlled by the Ottoman Empire, by the Roman Empire, by disorganized tribes of farmers, and so on has always, always been a multiracial, multireligious, multiethnic, and otherwise highly diverse place in which people who look and sound nothing alike have, at least sometimes, gotten along as neighbors peacefully.

So, the popular idea that these lands must only be owned and occupied by an incredibly specific regional subset of brown-skinned peoples who're practicing a very narrow subset of Islam and advocating for a very narrow subset of economic and financial organization through nationalist militarism (i.e. these lands "must belong to the real Palestinians only" and not the "other Palestinians" or anybody who's not Palestinian in the first place) is rather bonkers to me.

Granted, it's equally bonkers to mirror this and state that only an extremely small minority of certain types of Jews can live in this land either, but two wrongs are two wrongs and not a right.

If a clique of people named Bob living on some random island decide to form a political party based on the oppression of everybody not named Bob, then they ought to be mocked for being insane. If a group of Steves does the same, then mock them just as much. Same for a group of Johns. Or a group of Mikes. Or Wills. And so on.

>>12930

Or at least those who have easiest access to voting.

There are plenty of places in America where voting comes at the sacrifice of being able to earn enough to eat for the day, and if not that, then a threat to one's continued employment given how much free time the process eats up, and how many employers in those states will not allow many of their lower class employees to take the day off to stand in line for hours just to vote. It gives an enormous amount of power to a smaller upper middle to upper class elite to determine the party nominees.

Because things changing isn't in the interests of those in political power.

People don't like hearing this, but a large part of various popular religious and political beliefs in America are based on mental illness. Not just dementia. But depression. Anxiety. Paranoia. Schizophrenia. And so on.

If you're a normal straight person going about your life in some standard American town being paralyzed with sincere fear that, say, gay men are out to get you and your family, such as gay dudes hiding in public places to molest your children everyplace potentially, well, that's textbook mental illness. You can label it as a political statement. Yet it's a clear-cut medical case of somebody's brain chemistry being diseased and past psychological events having impacts now.

You don't need to go vote. You need therapy. And pills.

[The exact principle much applies if you're psychologically deranged about Catholics, people with red hair, Jews, Hispanic people, bisexual people, left-handed people, or any other random small group of whomever.]

>>12887
I'm ill convinced of much you describe here, especially in respect to a greater territorial aim from Russia.
In either case; they've got no historical claim on France, nor is it a nation that boarders them anyway. So I'm not really sure how any of that would apply.

>>12885
Stating things plainly:

If the native Taiwanese peoples that organically arose on that island have a form of civilization with their own artworks, religions, music, literature, social organizations, and so on that is scientifically inferior and lesser than the mighty achievements of that mainland Chinese race, with the mainland Chinese race suffering under the idiocy and immorality of the lower races temporarily having political power, then is it a matter of scientific destiny of those with higher evolved way of life exterminate those lesser beings and thus take over the island's territory.

This is exactly parallel to the superior Russian race achieving their proper place above mongrel groups of a lower biological status such as the Finns and the Ukrainians (among many others) that're compromised by Jewish influences, homosexual influences, feminist influences, and so on, with the more evolved civilization organizing proper life above the immoral barbarian groups temporarily occupying territory that could be used more efficiently by better peoples.

As the iconic conservative political philosopher Houston Stewart Chamberlain put it, "Certain anthropologists would fain teach us that all races are equally gifted; we point to history and answer: that is a lie! The races of mankind are markedly different in the nature and also in the extent of their gifts."

I don't know. It's hard to care about politics anymore after the Democratic Party failed to nominate Bernie Sanders, who was the more popular candidate, resulting in the anti-establishment movement having nowhere else to turn but to Donald Trump, giving him the win in 2016. And then to see that they also ended up giving up the Supreme Court seats, as well, because they would have rather had Donald Trump as President than Bernie Sanders.

In 2020, the Democratic Party threw a few peanuts to the Bernie Sanders crowd in order to gain back some of their lost support, which barely worked.

Now, in 2024, it's the story of the new slightly-reformed establishment candidate vs. the only anti-establishment candidate again.

But would the world have really been that much different if Bernie Sanders won the nomination and presidency in 2020? I doubt it. Trump would have probably just ran and won in 2020 instead, and it would just be Bernie vs. Trump again this year.

As for the chances of Trump being President in 2024, I would say it's about as good as they were four years ago. I'm not going to follow the election, though. I'll probably do an internet search to see who the President is in February or March of next year, after all the recounts are in (and the lawsuits are over).

If Trump loses in 2024, he won't be running again in 2028. He'll be way too old. He would proably end support for such wars, I think. Expressions of support are complex, as it's often a political game when dealing with other countries. For exmaple, if you say you're never going to support X country if Y country attacks X, then you're just encouraging Y country to attack X, and if they can take you at your word because of your history of being honest, then that just encourages Y country to attack X. But it's hard to say.

Also if Trump loses in 2024, we'll almost certainly get a Republican in 2028. If Trump wins in 2024, then we'll probably get a Democrat in 2028. (But I could be wrong, as I often am.)

tl;dr: The President is just a figurehead. Real change doesn't happen through politics. If you feel like it, vote. If you don't, then don't.

>>12884
>It neither is, nor was, no.
>You would be mistaken in this presupposition.

It certainly applies to businesses based in the US though.

And even in this case the only reason they have any concern over TikTok is because Trump hates it because a bunch of teen girls used it to humiliate him in 2020.

>>12886
Certainly not. Plenty of companies have been called in by congress, especially in more recent years. Didn't they have Zuckerberg in no too long ago?

>>12884
>>12886
>>12889
I suppose the most annoying aspect of all of this is that U.S. corporations have done a lot of unethical things over the past decade that should be intellectually investigated.

Of course, intellectually investigating a entity means studying obscure financial documents. It means looking at the physical set-ups of various real buildings. It means analyzing tax related claims in the legal record. And so on.

Mindlessly screaming at somebody wealthy a set of partisan political buzzwords in front of a group of cameras doesn't have anything whatsoever to do with intellectual processes, even if such yelling can make you more famous given the meme-heavy era that we live in.

A toddler loudly clanging a set of spoons against a metal refrigerator isn't the same thing at all as a professional drummer for a jazz band starting a public performance.

>>12881
I just realized that isn't even a reply to the post I saw, but one well further in... alongside several attempts to make the same affirmation of Goat's position...

I suppose it's still worth saying, though now I can at least say with certainly it isn't mere ignorant belief or fanaticism, but a more clear-cut frankly attempt to demonize or otherwise paint as monster any who fall into the realm of doubting the agreed upon narrative, let alone whom fall into a generalized "opposition".
This kind of dehumanization is dangerous enough on its own, even without the expressed desire to remove basic fundamental rights from individuals.

>>12880
>>12881
>>12883
You're engaging in a rather odd kind of what amounts to a "totalitarian libertarianism" or some other sort of intellectual soufflé.

The people advocating for big government jackboots to stamp down upon their social opposition are politically right-wing, particularly when it comes to Jewish and Chinese scientists being targeted by demands that they be fined, put in jail, muzzled in terms of their free speech, or even assassinated.

The only blind faith in the state that I've ever seen comes from libertarians and/or conseratives looking for an activist state to destroy their supposed enemies such that said state can crush those who lobby against an official government ideology of conservativism and/or libertarianism. Such as governments preventing regular Average Joes from calling for the wearing of masks and such. And governments even preventing institutions from having masks worn inside of them, having social distance practices taking place inside of them, and so on. Hell, libertarians have been shrieking for blood as-is about destroying the lives of scapegoats viewed as being responsible for COVID-19 all across the media for years and years now.

It's weirdly ironic that libertarianism is supposed to be an ideology of freedom and yet it's demanded to be imposed upon people, by coercion, against their will. This applies not just to COVID-19 related issues but libertarians fighting to have gay marriage banned, libertarians claiming that gun rights should only apply to certain groups and not others, libertarians selectively advocating for higher taxes depending on the industry and/or business being gored, and the like. It's maddening. To be frank.

>>12893
I fail to see how daring to oppose a rather orwellian proposal that certain doubts or beliefs ought be muzzled and prohibited quantifies as "totalitarian".

But then, given the rest of your speil, I suppose it's rather clear you've little interest engaging in what I've actually said, when you could simply paint me in the brush of your hated enemy for daring to disagree with you. To leave aside the doubtful validity of your portrayal of that enemy, besides.

Claiming that libertarians oppose certain groups from owning guns, for instance.  An obvious abject absurdity that has no bearing whatsoever at all in reality.
Anyone with half a brain ought be able to point such a blatant falsehood out, that it marks you rather self-evidently an unserious individual reciting tribalism and not reality.

There's a lot to unpack there, but there's two especially big parts that stick out to me.  One is that the data, at best, goes back to 1990, and there often isn't too crazy a divergence until about 2015, long after humanity had gone online.  It seems more likely that other events in their respective countries are causing these trends.  This is something we might be able to corroborate if data went back farther.  Second, being more liberal or conservative or even having a gap between the two isn't necessarily a net negative, so I wouldn't say that even if all other assumptions were correct there would be any particular downsides.

As for more minor issues, most of these graphs still show people in general as leaning liberal.  The US and Germany had males trend slightly towards a more centrist stance compared to women, while the UK had a sharp liberal upturn in both listed genders, just less pronounced in men.  South Korea is the only one that was wildly divergent or conservative in nature.

Paul's "boringly obvious" explanation seems to pull a conclusion out of nowhere and with no supporting data whatsoever.  In fact, I'd even say it goes against common expectations.  People hanging out primarily with their own gender has always been the norm, and if anything is probably only changing away from that recently.  I'm also not sure that the concepts of conservatism and liberalism are particularly gendered?  Like, at multiple points on these graphs, the women are more conservative than the men, which seems weird if they're ever meant to "make the boys more liberal".

Definitions are too tricky here.

For example, does the term "conservative" mean "racial and religious prejudice"? Does wanting people fired from their jobs for being Jewish, kicked out of their homes for being gay, prevented from educational success due to being in an interracial marriage, and so on constitute "conservative beliefs"? Is thinking that free speech, freedom of assembly, gun rights, and so on should involve restrictions or even outright bans so that the "wrong types of peoples don't have freedom" a key part of "being a conservative"? What about advocating for Holocaust denial? A flat Earth? That LGBT people are organizing conspiracies to "groom children"? That vaccines against the coronavirus are actually dangerously sickening? And so on?

I'm not making accusations here. I'm genuinely asking. Because it seriously matters. What is "a conservative person"? Is that different during various contrasting times in various contrasting places?

An activist-leaning libertarian in New York City who spends his life at firearm ranges with his African-American gun club? A transgender Scottish actress campaigning against higher taxes in Glasgow? And an Austrian neo-Nazi influenced businessman living in Berlin who sells lederhosen? These three humans will call themselves "conservatives" but are so unlike each other that they might as well be literal aliens from different planets.

>>12834

Absolutely.

Communicating entirely through text is not enough to communicate fully things like vocal tone, inflections and other non-linguistic verbal communication. Also, things like facial expression and body language are lost too.

Written language alone can't really communicate as well as direct interaction can, it's much more limited.

>>12769
Why can't we just grill in peace?

There's no such thing as apolitical, yanno. If you don't have a problem following the state it just means you agree with what its doing (or maybe youre just unaware) (whether you actually do believe/agree is not important, you are essentially just saying youre fine with it, regardless)

and hey. thats okay.

>>12810
I also wish to just grill in peace.

>>12731
>>12732
>>12734
Suppose that AGI provides for all our material needs: good housing, good food, good healthcare, etc.  I worry that this might still be a dystopia.  For many, it is important to have a sense of purpose and to engage in meaningful work or activities where one can utilize one's skills and which provides a sense of accomplishment --- what if AGI deprives us of this?

>>12737

I think that the traditional concept of the meaning of work would disappear as a result of AGI, freeing up people to be able to pursue more meaningful work. Jacque Fresco (with The Venus Project) talks about this in one of his videos from 2009 (I think it's from one of his movies): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUCmHH6grsI but it still seems to be relevant.

>>12737
>What if AGI deprives us of this?
This is a question that I believe cannot be answered even slightly at this moment because it hasn't been adequately studied either academically or otherwise. It does matter. It should be asked. I hope that it gets looked into (since the possibility of individuals feeling like sponges as per your image is indeed real).