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 No.8414

File: 1608339956236.png (172.34 KB, 1976x1144, 19:11, aaa.png) ImgOps Google

1) Why does the death rate (first chart) vary significantly by day (color coding)?

2) While I understand viral exponential growth, is it behavior changes or something else that switches the growth to decay?  (It seems the third hump is going to begin decline soon.)

 No.8415

1. One theory I've heard is that it's just a reporting artifact.  E.g., a subset of reporting entities don't bother reporting anything over the weekend and don't even manage to clear their backlog on Monday, spilling over to Tuesday.

2. Another factor is that as more people get clear the infection (gaining immunity), the percentage of local infectable people decreases, thereby decreasing the spread.

 No.8417

>>8415
2. It might be a mix of "immunity" and ways in which measures to prevent the spread take effect.

 No.8418

Lots of speculation. Not much evidence. Poorly understood for most diseases. The bulk of explanation given for why the seasonal flu is seasonal don't stand up to scrutiny. If you can answer it you'd probably get a Nobel Prize or some crap.

 No.8454

>>8415
>don't even manage to clear their backlog on Monday, spilling over to Tuesday
That was my first guess, giving it might take some time to decide a death should be attributed to COVID and counted.  An article I found seemed to point more to some unknown difference in behavior on different days of the week, so I wasn't sure what was more likely.

>percentage of local infectable people decreases, thereby
>>8417
decreasing the spread
Right, herd immunity.  In the early stages you might have considered the effect negligible, but now it is gaining ground, perhaps.

>>8418
>the seasonal flu is seasonal
I was under the impression it was the mutations of the flu that kept it from being extinguished through herd immunity, but also kept it mild, as most everyone is immune to something similar.  I don't know if that's right, though, and it is not a theory with much precision, if that's what you mean.

It also opens the possibility with Coronavirus, that it will become endemic through mutation.  If I understand, the high rate of spread means it is otherwise doomed to die out or retreat to a non-human resivore.


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